Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Snow on Thursday morning in Halifax?


Thursday 4 Dec update: The post below (written on Tuesday 2 Dec) shows how wrong I was and how right the Environment Canada forecast was. No snow at all fell on Thu morning and it was fairly sunny. I will need to refine my forecasting skills a lot.

----------------------------------------------------Tuesday post below---------------------------------------------
Currently a low pressure is forecast to develop over east Canada over the next couple of days. My question is over the forecast. Environment Canada says for Thurday's weather that it will be "Sunny". The GFS suggests precipitation and the 540 and 528 thickness lines will spread across Nova Scotia brisk WSW flow by 500 am on Thu (shown on image below). To my eyes this suggests a fairly decent fall of snow but I have only looked at the GFS model. Perhaps environment Canada just keeps it simple a few days out as it may know how tricky the forecast is in the this area of the globe. We shall see. The precipitation does clear but not until Thu afternoon in this model.

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